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ScenarioWatch

Strategic foresight through dual lenses—offense and defense

Latest

The Arrival

Jun 10, 2026

Fifteen weeks in, the shock reached the price level, the war returned to the sky, and the AI trade met its first real test.

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Repriced, Not Resolved

Jun 4, 2026

The market priced the war's end; this week all six lanes returned the same verdict, and the conflict sat exactly where it was.

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The Whipsaw

May 28, 2026

Records on Wednesday, strikes on Thursday: the market priced a Hormuz deal the war has not signed, and every lane now carries the gap.

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Six Lanes Under Pressure

May 20, 2026

Every category carries live signals this week, and the digital chokepoint beneath the Strait is the one boards have not yet priced.

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Six Lanes Through Beijing

May 13, 2026

What changes when the negotiating channel collapses, the diplomatic re-architecture migrates in 72 hours, and inflation regimes shift underneath the geopolitics.

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ScenarioWatch

Strategic foresight through dual lenses—offense and defense

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