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ScenarioWatch

Strategic foresight through dual lenses—offense and defense

Latest

The Ceasefire Didn't Freeze the Conflict.

Apr 15, 2026

It Changed Its Form.

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The Ceasefire Creates New Opportunities

Apr 8, 2026

And New Risks Simultaneously

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Trump says war ending in "two to three weeks," no deal needed

Apr 1, 2026

Iran's FM Araghchi says prepared for "at least six months."

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Trump Calls It Talks. Iran Calls It Lies.

Mar 25, 2026

Oil Calls It $102.

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The Decapitation Campaign Is Working. The War Is Getting Worse. Both Things Are True.

Mar 18, 2026

Three top Iranian officials killed in 48 hours; standing kill authorization issued. Fed decides today with dot plot. Brent holds above $100. Gas at $3.79 (+27%). Kent resigns as counterterrorism chief.

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Strategic foresight through dual lenses—offense and defense

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